Ottawa Housing Market Outlook (Fall 2020)
In the wake of COVID-19, the typically busy spring season in the Ottawa housing market was delayed until June 2020, according to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report. At this point when economies began reopening, home sales increased by 2% year-over-year, and average home prices continue to climb, with residential home prices up as much as 14% year-over-year. Price growth is expected to continue.
Lack of inventory and a desire to get into the market has positioned Ottawa as a strong seller’s market. Rural areas in the region have seen an uptick in interest, as buyers look to secure more space and amenities to accommodate a shift toward working from home.
Ottawa’s recreational market has seen a massive increase in interest, with buyers coming from major cities such as Toronto, to access larger properties and more space. Of all the markets within Ottawa, the luxury market is currently performing the best, with those who can afford larger homes looking to move up in the market post-COVID 19.
A 3% increase in the average residential sale price is expected in Ottawa for the remainder of the year.
Ontario Real Estate Trends
What’s been happening across other Ontario real estate markets? With the province being one of the hardest-hit regions in Canada, markets such as Niagara, Mississauga and Kitchener-Waterloo experienced significant drops in activity. However, come June, they bounced back aggressively as economies began to reopen. With all of Ontario now in phase three of re-opening and consumers more comfortable engaging in the market, market activity in Ontario is expected to remain steady in the fall, with modest price increases of up to 6% in some regions.
Canadian Housing Market Trends
Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada’s housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6% during the remainder of the year. This is compared to the 3.7% increase that was predicted in late 2019.
The pandemic has prompted many Canadians to reassess their living situations. According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 32% of Canadians no longer want to live in large urban centres, and instead would opt for rural or suburban communities. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group. Not only are Canadians more motivated to leave cities, but changes in work and life dynamics have also shifted their needs and wants for their homes. According to the survey, 44% of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard.
Canadians equally split on their confidence in the housing market
Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canada’s real estate market, with 39% as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56% of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell. “The classically hot spring market that was pushed to the summer months due to the COVID-19 pandemic created a surprisingly strong market across Canada and across all market segments,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Looking ahead, government financial aid programs may be coming to an end in September, which could potentially impact future activity; however, the pent-up demand and low inventory dynamic may keep prices steady and bolster activity for the remainder of 2020. Overall, we are very confident in the long-term durability of the market.” Additional highlights from the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report Survey:
- 48% of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
- 48% of Canadians say it’s more important than ever to live in a community close to hospitals and clinics
- 33% of Canadians would like more square footage in their home and have realized they need more space
- 44% of Canadians want a home with more outdoor space and personal amenities (i.e. balcony, pool etc.)
About the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments..
Seller’s market conditions expected, prices to rise 6%
RE/MAX is forecasting conditions favouring sellers for the Ottawa housing market in 2020. The average residential sale price is expected to rise by six per cent, thanks to existing market momentum, despite the region experiencing greater market stability in the past. Low inventory and a strong buyer pool should put upward pressure on prices going into 2020.
Demand for properties will be driven by move-up, first-time and move-over homebuyers, with Kanata and Orleans being the neighbourhoods to watch in 2020, particularly due to the fact that the LRT is expected to eventually expand to those regions.
Ottawa is currently experiencing a seller’s market due to its low inventory. While the city is generally affordable, higher prices and low inventory is putting pressure on the market, affecting first-time homebuyers. The up-and-running LRT has resulted in surrounding development, particularly high-rise condominiums. Condominiums and townhomes tend to see the most activity in the region, due to their relative affordability compared to other property types.
From a national perspective, RE/MAX anticipates a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected, with an estimated 3.7-per-cent increase in the average national residential sales price, according to the RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report.
Most individual markets surveyed across Canada experienced moderate price increases year-over-year from 2018 to 2019. However, some regions in Ontario continue to experience higher-than-normal gains, including London (+10.7 per cent), Windsor (+11 per cent), Ottawa (+11.7 per cent) and Niagara (+12.9 per cent).
“Southern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions seeing double-digit gains,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Thanks to the region’s resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.”
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